Record the judgement
Write the probability, reasons, premortem, success condition and review date before the result is known.
A decision record, not a note
The fields hindsight would change are the fields Addiem locks.
A note remembers words. Addiem preserves the structure of the judgement: what you chose, what probability you assigned, why, what failure would look like and when the evidence should be reviewed.
Illustrative decision recordSealed before outcome
DecisionRaise the annual price before the next launch
Confidence70%
Success meansRevenue per qualified visitor rises at least 10% after 90 days
Review90 days after launch
What changes my mindPaid conversion falls more than five points below baseline
PremortemIf this failed, what probably caused it?
How it works
Record. Seal. Review.
Addiem does not choose for you. It creates a fixed point outside your memory, then gives you a disciplined way to return to it.
Seal the original
The core fields become read-only. You can add evidence later without quietly replacing what you first believed.
Review the evidence
Resolve the outcome, score the process separately and let Brier scores reveal your calibration over time.
- Decision Journal
Locked reasoning, success condition and review date. - Forecasts
Short-horizon calls that build a useful calibration sample sooner. - Domain Triage
Clear, complicated, complex or chaotic, with a matching response. - Sentinel Indicators
Write the threshold and response before pressure arrives. - Probe Portfolio
Small reversible bets for uncertain, complex problems. - Weekly Review
A fifteen-minute loop that brings overdue records back.
What it replaces
Built for judgement, not general productivity.
Addiem is useful when the feedback is slow enough for memory to interfere: a hire, launch, price, investment, move or other consequential choice.
Notes keep prose
Addiem keeps a probability, a deadline and a checkable definition of success beside the prose.
Forecast trackers keep odds
Addiem connects the odds to the decision, reasoning, premortem and later process review.
AI recommends answers
Addiem does not. The judgement remains yours; the record simply makes it inspectable later.
Methods inside the product
Old ideas, made usable.
Brier scoreA scoring rule for probabilistic forecasts, introduced by Glenn Brier in 1950.
PremortemAssume the decision failed, then explain why before committing. Based on prospective-hindsight research and Gary Klein's applied method.
CynefinA way to distinguish clear, complicated, complex and chaotic situations before choosing how to act.
Calibration by domainSee whether your confidence matches your accuracy, and where it does not, instead of hiding everything inside one score.
Peer-reviewed foundations
Built on work that survived scrutiny.
Hindsight bias peer-reviewed · Fischhoff 1975
Outcome knowledge can change what we remember expecting. Addiem keeps the original rationale fixed.
Brier score peer-reviewed · 1950
The original scoring rule for probabilistic forecasts. Addiem uses the same formula to make calibration visible.
Forecasting skill peer-reviewed · Tetlock
Repeated feedback and practice can sharpen probabilistic judgement. Addiem gives that loop a place to run.
Intuitive expertise peer-reviewed · 2009
Intuition is more dependable when the environment is regular and feedback is fast. Addiem helps you check those conditions.
Prospective hindsight peer-reviewed · 1989
Imagining failure before commitment surfaces more reasons to act carefully. Addiem turns the premortem into a repeatable step.
Sources for these foundations are shown inside the app and in the free calibration test.
Your archive
Local by design.
No Addiem account, cloud database or telemetry. The application and your decision archive stay on your machine. Export the archive whenever you want.
Plainly stated: the archive itself is not encrypted. Use your device's full-disk encryption for sensitive records. The desktop builds are currently unsigned; the included local browser version needs no installation. The installation page shows the exact status before you pay.
Desktop appLocal JSON archive, daily snapshot and 30 days of backups.
Browser fileOne local file for macOS, Windows or Linux. Export JSON regularly.
NetworkThe desktop main process blocks outbound network requests.
OwnershipReadable, portable data with one-click import and export.
Founding offer · 10 supported places
Start with one real decision.
The offer includes the complete Addiem licence and written help setting up one decision you are making now. No call, course or sales deck. Send the decision in writing; I will help turn it into a testable record.
Enrollment closes 13 September 2026 at 23:59 UTC, or when ten people have joined. The founding price is temporary. The licence is permanent.
Want to test the method before paying? Send one decision for a narrow free pressure test. It does not include the app or the full setup.
Questions
Before you decide.
Material limitations are here on purpose. If your machine or workflow does not fit, you should know before checkout.
How soon is it useful?
The premortem and decision record are useful on the first decision. A meaningful calibration pattern needs repeated forecasts over several weeks.
Is it a task manager or AI adviser?
No. It does not organise tasks or recommend a choice. It records and later scores your own judgement.
Does it work on phones or with teams?
No. Addiem is single-user and desktop-first. There is no mobile app, team workspace or cloud sync.
What will I download?
A complete local browser file, a universal macOS app, a Windows installer and portable Windows app, plus setup and verification guides. The receipt and future maintained update links go to the email used at checkout.
What does “unsigned” mean?
The Mac and Windows desktop builds may show a first-launch warning because they do not yet have commercial publisher signatures. The local browser file avoids that prompt. See the exact warnings and public file fingerprints.
What if it is not for me?
Email abdulsamet@addiem.net within 14 days of purchase for a full refund. No explanation is required. Read the full terms.
The next decision is enough
Record it before you know how it ends.
Try the calibration test if you want to see the scoring first. Get Addiem if you already have a decision worth preserving.